How much money will it take to sign Matt Forte?
Submitted by Your Boy Roy on Sun, 04/01/2012 - 10:21pm
With OTAs set to begin for the Chicago Bears in two weeks, how much money would it take to make sure that Matt Forte doesn't begin his holdout on that day?
While it was great to hear Ted Phillips attempt to shoot down trade rumors and reinforce the idea that the Bears would actually let Matt Forte play under the franchise tag in 2012, it's still up to Matt Forte to decide when he wants to join the team while tagged. Until Matt Forte agrees that the Chicago Bears have indeed made “a strong offer”, as Ted Phillips put it, Forte could hold out for most of, if not all of the off-season.
The absence of Matt Forte during the off-season would hurt the Bears as they begin to learn and practice Mike Tice's new offense. Though there is carryover from Martz' offense, there will be plenty of new wrinkles added by both Tice and Bates, which Forte will be behind on, should he decide to hold out during the off-season.
So just how much money would it take for the Chicago Bears to lock down Matt Forte and have him show up a happy camper this off-season? How much money does Matt Forte think he's worth and what is he likely asking for?
When talking about his own value, we've heard Matt Forte refer to his production and how it compares to the highest paid, elite running backs. It's safe to assume that he's doing the same thing via his agent during contract negotiations. While there are several statistics that compare the production of running backs, the most favorable measurement for Matt Forte is the average of total yards gained per season. Lucky for him, it's also a good statistic to use as it does factor in durability and serves to reveal just how much value a team is actually getting per contract year. Therefore, to try to find out just how much money Matt Forte wants, I've decided to create a handy table that does just what Matt Forte suggests: compare his production to the contracts of other recently signed and/or elite running backs.
As you can see, Matt Forte ranks third on this list, placing him ahead of both recently signed running backs Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch. You'll also notice that Matt Forte is ahead of DeAngelo Williams, whom many analysts feel was overpaid. Overpaid or not, Williams' contract is still a factor in running back negotiations as evidenced by Foster's deal. It's no coincidence that Foster's contract average per year is $100K more than Williams'.
I'm sure Matt Forte's agent has looked at a table very similar, if not identical to this to help determine what his client's worth is. If you're Adisa Bakari, Matt Forte's agent, you're going to fight to make sure your client gets at least the $8.6M per year contract average that DeAngelo Williams received and close to if not more than the $8.7M per year contract average that Arian Foster recently signed for. In terms of guaranteed money, you'd feel obligated as Matt Forte's agent to ask for at least the $4.25M per year guaranteed average that Marshawn Lynch recently signed for, while also making sure that the total guaranteed money is close to, if not more than the $21M that Williams received.
Using the aforementioned data points, the parameters for Matt Forte's deal are a contract average of no less than $8.5M per year, a guaranteed average of around $4.25M per year, and a total guarantee of at least $21M. That being said, if the Chicago Bears want to end this contract standoff before it ever begins, without Matt Forte missing any off-season time, their “strong offer” needs to be around 5 years, $42.5M with $21.25M guaranteed.
It seems pretty clear to me what the market for Matt Forte is worth at this time. As such, it will continue to be hard for the Bears to try to expect for Matt Forte to take anything less than what he's clearly worth. If I'm the Chicago Bears and I really want Matt Forte as part of my team for the next few years, then I make him the offer he's looking for before he ever sees dollar one under the franchise tag. Also, I offer him the deal sooner rather than later so that you can get a well-prepared Matt Forte, versus the hold out version that will likely have to catch up during the first few games of the regular season.
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3 comments postedThis back and forth between Forte/Adisa Bakari and the Bears (anonymously represented in the media) has got to be the most futile, embarrassing thing I have ever seen. Forte cannot expect, that is in this business he is NOT ENTITLED, to be rewarded for his previous performance, despite how Yourboyroy's repeated proclamation of his idea of the NFL's operating principle "What have you done for me lately" might be interpreted as claiming. Sure, it plays a factor in so far as sub-par play (eg. Chris Williams) will naturally lead the Bears' Front Office to wonder if they could EVER expect quality play from a given player, and good-to-quasi-elite play (eg. Forte who cannot pull away from defenders like CJ or AP but blocks well) only shows them that, ceteris paribus, it would not be entirely surprising if that player played similarly in the future. HOWEVER, ceteris paribus (as is normally the case) does not obtain in this circumstance!!! Therefore, given his number of carries (college + pros), knee injuries, lack of 'burner' speed relative to other 'elite' backs, inability to punch the ball through small holes in short yardage situations, and age, THE BEARS WOULD BE STUPID TO 'AWARD' FORTE WITH A CONTRACT THE REFLECTS HIS PAST ACHIEVEMENTS. In actuality, they are interested in the future performance of a prospective extended-contract player. Prime example is Lance Briggs. At first glance it APPEARS as if the Bears went out and extended a veteran player to award him for the many years of probowl ball he has provided their defense. WRONG. It's not that this analysis of his play is false, it is that there is every indication (eg. playing EVERY defensive snap for the Bears last season and still producing at a probowl caliber, ie. no signs of slowing down, the typical career trajectory of the position which does not usually precipitate a sudden drop as is a concern with running backs, etc.) that his FUTURE production will be of a similar sort. Sure, there are other less-/in-tangible aspects to the monetary/contractual valuation of a player besides on-the-field production:
(a) productive presence in the locker room
(b) community involvement
(c) living and conducting ones life (personal and professional) in accordance with the clubhouse's values, etc. just to name a few.
It would appear that given the competitive milieu of the Bears organization (ie. where they stand with respect to other teams and their own team of past seasons), the net net is that they do NOT value Forte as much as one might in, say, a perfectly free market NFL economy. This is not going to change, in fact this valuation will likely become more entrenched, the more Adisa Bakari attempts to take jabs at and negotiate Fortes contract with the bears via the media. One of the Bears' front office's guiding principles, much like the Israeli government's guiding principle is not to negotiate with terrorists, is that under NO circumstances will they negotiate contracts publically through the media. The more this goes on, the more likely fans like myself will be deprived of watching Forte's potential complement to an already impressive offense (on paper) and frankly I am aboslutely fed up with it. Forte, you really need to ditch this serpentine agent and get with the program. The Bears players and coaches adore you (not to mention the fans) and the front office is willing to pay you a competitive salary. I cringe (as I have in previous circumstances such as this the experiencing of which has garnered me a skill of 'seeing it before it happens') at the thought of a really good player and person like Forte being mislead by his crooked and frankly moronic agent only to realize it too late (after bridges are burned, and face cannot be saved without moving on). My prediction: Forte comes to a point where he realizes he has missed out on a really good thing (career move) by not signing with the Bears for a substantial pay raise and full devotion to his services, at which point the two sides have become so polarized by his godforsaken agent that Forte finds himself in a position where he must get rid of this poisonous influence, BUT he cannot accept previously offered deals from the Bears for less money because either those offers are no longer on the table or his own pride gets in the way. It is a sad day in sports when such a thing transpires.
I agree with your line of thinking. As you said "If I were the Bears..."; that full quote is the most telling, and true. The Bears are not interested in involving Forte in their long term future (IMO).
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