In arguably one of the biggest early season matchups in franchise history, the Chicago Bears travel down to the Bayou to face the high-powered New Orleans Saints. Fueled by the added motivation of playing on behalf of the grieving Brian Urlacher, here are the most important keys to ensure victory for the Chicago Bears versus the New Orleans Saints.
Jay Cutler & The Receivers
Though I've seen and heard most fans and analysts expecting the Chicago Bears to run their way to victory because they're playing in a hostile environment, the Bears still want to win through the air in this passing league as they did last week. That's not to say that the Bears won't take advantage of running the ball when they know the situation is right, but the Bears still want to make their living through the air by gaining yards in chunks. What I believe most people seem to be overlooking in this obvious “let's run our way to victory” belief, is that the Bears short-passing and screen game effectively serves as a running game as well. Therefore, when I mention the receivers, I'm including the running backs and the tight ends within that group.
The Bears like to spread out defenses by throwing quick hitting routes and screens in order to slow down the pass rush. Once they have a defense where they want them, thinking pass, that's when they decide to run the ball. The beauty is that the Saints run exotic yet very risky pressure packages which leaves the edges of their defense very weak. As long as Jay Cutler and his receivers are on the same page and reading the defenses right, they should be able to connect on the built-in hot reads of the offense whenever they see a blitz coming. Again I remind you, Jay Cutler has been clocked at releasing the ball on hot routes in less than a second, before any pass rush could ever affect him. Expect plenty of formation shifting and Cutler initiated motion in order for the offense to get a read on the Saints defense.
Because the Saints are hurting so much along their defensive line, you can expect them to take great risks to apply pressure as they did versus the Green Bay Packers in week one. The problem is that with the Saints secondary hurting as much as it is, when they do bring pressure and play man, there will be plenty of opportunities for Jay Cutler and his speedy receivers to take advantage of it. After the Bears do that successfully a few times, you can expect the Saints defense to slip into zone whenever they decide to blitz and that's when the Bears will have them right where they want them. Mike Martz' playcalling will eat their zone alive as there's almost always an open receiver on any given Martz play versus a zone. In what will be a great battle of the minds between Mike Martz and Gregg Williams, expect the hurting Saints defense to get exposed yet again as they did in week one versus the Green Bay Packers.
Pressure from the Left Defensive End
In the Saints week one matchup versus the Green Bay Packers, their most glaring weakness along the offensive line was their right tackle Zach Strief versus Clay Matthews. Strief was so regularly abused by Matthews that the Saints were forced to put in an extra tackle and a tight end on his side to give Drew Brees enough time to throw. The problem with that for the Saints is that it takes two extra weapons away from Drew Brees. While it worked against the Packers because they also take great risks in their defensive pressures, it will not work nearly as well versus the Bears as they play a much more safe zone keeping everything in front of them. Peppers can't line up on the left all the time obviously so whoever is on that side, Idonije, Reed or Wootton, needs to continue to pressure the Saints into taking weapons off of the field to help Zach Strief. Once the Saints do that, they will be playing into the strengths of the Chicago Bears defense and we will see the Saints offense begin to sputter.
For those anxiously awaiting Kreutz to fail and Melton to have another monster game, I for one do not expect it. The Saints interior is tougher than the Falcons as they feature two pro-bowl guards, who will be helping out Kreutz. That being said, if Melton can have another big game versus this more difficult matchup, it would signal that Melton is the real deal at the 3-technique and that the sky's the limit for this Chicago Bears defense.
Brandon Meriweather
Meriweather didn't have to wait long in order to get his first start at free safety with the Chicago Bears due to Chris Harris' mysterious hamstring injury which occurred in the final four minutes of last week's game. Though he is very excited to start, I hope he's ready to run his ass off in the secondary as Drew Brees will definitely test him either directly or when Meriweather has to help the other DBs out over the top. Of all the ways that the Saints could possibly exploit the Bears defense, this is the most concerning to me. Yes Meriweather is a pro-bowl saftey, but not as a Chicago Bear...yet. As long as he isn't regularly late to help other DBs and especially if he gets a takeaway or two, this could be his first start of many for Meriweather with the Chicago Bears. If Meriweather plays well, I fully expect the Saints offense to sputter on Sunday.
Special Teams Coverage Units
After the solid performances of both Robbie Gould on kickoffs and Adam Podlesh on punts effectively neutralized the Falcons pro-bowl return game, I expect more of the same inside the dome versus Darren Sproles. As long as Gould can consistently kick the ball out of the back of the end zone, that will go a long way towards eliminating Sproles as a factor on special teams. When the Bears are forced to punt, as long as Podlesh doesn't out-kick his coverage, I expect our punt coverage unit to be even better than it was last week as the very solid Sam Hurd returns to compliment the already dominant Corey Graham.
Final Pick: Bears 30 Saints 27
I've been perfectly clear since I first communicated my scouting report on the Saints on Wednesday's live show, this is the Chicago Bears game to lose versus the New Orleans Saints. As the week has progressed, I've noticed more and more local media actually feel the same way. It's not just the extra emotional inspiration that the Chicago Bears have that is giving those who have a better handle on this team a reason to be confident versus the Saints. When you start to break them down, they have several key weakness on both defense and offense which I have outlined above. As long as the Bears take advantage of those weaknesses without making too many costly mistakes, especially turnovers for scores, the Chicago Bears should handle the New Orleans Saints regardless of the crowd noise. Though the Saints could be facing an 0-2 hole after this game, there's a good chance that they'll still be tied for first place in their division as the rest of the NFC South faces some very tough matchups. If the Bears do win for the second week in a row as I expect them to, you can fully expect the national media to start jumping on the Bears bandwagon leading up to the Packers game. All aboard.
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Comments
3 comments postedGood point about Meriweather being key in this game. We really do need him to be up to speed or Brees will just go after him all day. Lesser pieces of the puzzle like A-pod come into the reckoning also. We'll need everyone from Cutler to the coaches to the punter to the waterboy to be on the ball today. Bring home the bacon, boys ... Bear Down!
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Great article! I am so mad that i do not get to watch this game, even though i will be at work we do turn on the games, i get to watch the "great game" of Packers vs. Carolina. I am hoping for a blowout in the first half so they can switch to a REAL game like the bears, haha.
More serious i hope everyone is ready to communicate out there and they might not be able to hear anyone as the crowd should be loud. I am going to go out on guess here and say that our interior d-line does a wonderful job and picks up right where they left off even with two pro-bowl guards. If not i am guessing it will be because they are taking up double teams, then it would be all up to the guys on the outside.
i really hope the bears pull this one off, i am sick of all the analysts on ESPN never giving the bears respect. Their expecting us to be like the falcons last week. I know Brees is way better than Matt Ryan but i just dont see him doing to us what he did vs the packers. I love that we hardly blitz!
GO BEARS-BEAR DOWN CHICAGO! : ]
(sorry i sort of rambled)